Although Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) remains one of the most reliable long-term stocks, history suggests that September should be approached with caution.
Over the past 45 years, September has consistently been the weakest month for Apple stock. AAPL has posted a win rate of just 34% during this period, with an average return of -4.18%, making it by far the worst month to hold the equity, according to data from charting platform TrendSpider.
This seasonal dip contrasts with months like July, October, and December, which have historically shown win rates above 60%. Even August, often seen as tough for broader markets, has delivered better outcomes for Apple investors than September.
Interestingly, the timing is ironic, as September is when Apple typically unveils its latest iPhones and other flagship products, events that dominate headlines and spark consumer excitement. Yet history shows the stock often struggles during this period.
Amid this bearish backdrop, Apple stock has had a rough run in 2025, closing the latest session at $231.59, down 5% year to date.
Now, all eyes are on Apple’s iPhone 17 event this September, where the company is expected to unveil the iPhone 17 Air, a slimmer model designed to rival Samsung’s Galaxy S25 Edge.
If the Air receives the same lukewarm reception as Samsung’s Edge, Apple could face challenges in reigniting growth and sustaining momentum in an increasingly competitive smartphone market, especially if it fails to deliver advanced artificial intelligence features.
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