On September 16, disappointing pre-order numbers for the new iPhone 16 led to a notable drop in Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) stock, with shares falling over 2% in pre-market trading. However, just a week later, on September 23, the fortunes of AAPL could see a significant turnaround as sales for the new device commenced over the weekend. This development raises the possibility that the tech giant’s stock could finally trend toward the $300 mark.
Expert analyses conducted both prior to September and immediately following the decline in pre-order figures indicate a blend of strong optimism regarding iPhone sales, alongside a belief that the recent downturn is likely just a temporary setback.
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Wall Street experts maintain a bullish outlook on Apple’s growth. For instance, Dan Ives from Wedbush has characterized the impending release, along with the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, as a catalyst that could propel the 2024 tech boom to new heights. In a September 19 interview, he likened the launch of the new smartphone to the onset of a new supercycle.
Just three days earlier, as AAPL’s stock price dipped due to pre-order concerns, analyst Jim Cramer remarked on social media that early figures for Apple products often unsettle investors, only for the stock to rebound shortly thereafter. He noted:
“How many times have we seen these early Apple reports being weak and then huge selling on it? Almost always buying opportunities the next day.” — Jim Cramer (@jimcramer), September 16, 2024.
FutureShock, a well-known chart analyst on TradingView, took the opportunity to illustrate the historical patterns of Apple stock movements, highlighting its typical downturns and recoveries around iPhone launches.
AAPL stock historical movements near iPhone releases. Source: FutureShock & TradingView
However, it is crucial to note that past trends do not guarantee future outcomes. AAPL shares may soon have the opportunity to either confirm or dismiss the potential for an upward movement, as they approach a two-month downward trendline, identified by AdvancedPlays, another respected TradingView analyst, at roughly $229.
Apple stock critical trendlines. Source: AdvancedPlays & TradingView
**Potential Obstacles for AAPL Rally:**
Conversely, several recent developments could jeopardize the optimistic outlook. Apple has faced scrutiny from European Union authorities in recent months, having been ordered to pay $14 billion in back taxes to Ireland and to open its product ecosystem to competitors to adhere to antitrust regulations.
Moreover, investor anxiety surrounding the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate decisions has grown, particularly since 50 basis point cuts have historically preceded significant recessions. While Apple’s incorporation of AI is generally anticipated to enhance its appeal and stock value, there are lingering concerns that this technological boom may have peaked, potentially creating a dangerous bubble, especially after firms like Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) saw their valuations surge by around $2 trillion in less than two years.
**Current Stock Performance:**
Despite these challenges, AAPL’s recent performance has been rather subdued. Over the past 30 days, AAPL shares have only seen a modest increase of 0.26%, attributed to the early September market turmoil and the fallout from the iPhone pre-order statistics.
AAPL stock 30-day price chart. Source: Finbold
Additionally, although Apple has risen 22.69% since the start of the year, it has lagged behind many of its competitors throughout the year, only beginning to catch up in recent months. Nevertheless, the last five trading days suggest that AAPL may be gaining positive momentum. As of the latest update, the stock price stands at $227.76, reflecting a 5.48% increase over the week.
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**Disclaimer:** The information provided on this site should not be interpreted as investment advice. Investing is inherently speculative, and your capital is at risk.
