As the stock market and cryptocurrency markets continue to soar, boosting the confidence of investors and dampening the spirits of skeptics, whispers of an impending crisis persist in the background.
Speculations regarding a looming inflation crisis, an AI-generated bubble on the brink of bursting, and the Federal Reserve’s potential role in deflating said bubble have circulated since the beginning of 2024. Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has joined the chorus, warning of unsustainable spending and borrowing fueling U.S. economic growth.
With the Fear & Greed Index trending towards ‘fear’ in mid-June, Finbold turned to OpenAI’s cutting-edge artificial intelligence model, ChatGPT-4o, to predict the onset of the next recession.
After careful analysis, ChatGPT indicated that while a crash is on the horizon, it is not an immediate threat. The AI pointed to mounting risks over the years, including inflation, interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, escalating debt levels, volatile emerging economies, and the growing vulnerability to cyberattacks and job loss due to rapid technology adoption.
Predicting that developing nations and the Eurozone are particularly susceptible to the impending recession, ChatGPT highlighted technology and healthcare sectors, as well as resource-rich countries, as potentially shielded from the worst effects of the crisis.
When pressed to pinpoint a start date for the next recession, ChatGPT settled on April 15, 2026, projecting a duration of 18 to 24 months. The AI forecasted a potential reduction of global GDP by $4.5 trillion under severe conditions, or $1.8 trillion in a milder scenario.
Despite uncertainties in its analysis, ChatGPT assigned a 75% likelihood of a major crisis beginning in 2026 or its neighboring years. Inflation, interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and escalating debt levels were identified as key triggers for the recession, with technology’s role deemed risky in the short term but promising in the long run.
While acknowledging the inherent risks in the technology sector, ChatGPT emphasized the importance of technological innovation in shaping a sustainable future for humanity.
